PARIS LONGCHAMP TIPS

Dean Kilbryde previews the best of Thursday action in Paris. 17:58 PARISLONGCHAMP – PRIX DU PALAIS-ROYAL

Lazzat arrives here with arguably the strongest recent Group form in the field and once again looks set for a major showing back over seven furlongs. Jerome Reynier’s five-year-old has been running consistently at Pattern level throughout the past twelve months and shaped particularly well when third in stronger company on his latest start, staying on steadily after briefly meeting traffic inside the final furlong. His previous efforts suggest Longchamp suits him well and with Mickael Barzalona taking the ride once again, a positive tactical position from stall five could prove decisive in what may become a steadily-run affair. Proven on varying ground conditions and already established at this level, he sets a solid standard.  

Silius has done little wrong since progressing into stakes company and his profile remains that of a horse still improving with racing. Christophe Ferland’s colt won back-to-back races impressively before shaping respectably in stronger company on his latest two starts and the return to Longchamp may help bring about further improvement given his strong travelling style. Maxime Guyon is an eye-catching booking, particularly around a track where patience and timing are often crucial over this seven-furlong trip, and from stall one he should enjoy an economical run throughout. The slight concern is whether he possesses quite the same turn of foot as some of the more battle-hardened Group performers, but his consistency makes him very easy to like.

Noble Champion arrives from the Ed Walker yard having already shown smart form in Britain this season and his latest victory suggested he may still be improving as a four-year-old. Kieran Shoemark takes the ride and the pair already appear to have developed a strong understanding based on recent efforts. His running style should suit Longchamp’s sweeping nature and any ease in the ground would likely enhance his chances further. However, this represents a deeper contest than he has been facing domestically and he may need a career-best effort to lower the colours of some proven French Group performers.

Rencontre Sportive is the interesting three-year-old in the field and receives a valuable weight allowance against older rivals which could bring him firmly into contention. He showed smart juvenile form last season and while his latest effort was slightly disappointing, there may have been excuses given the race developed unfavourably from a tactical perspective. Hiroo Shimizu’s runners are often underestimated in French Pattern company and if able to settle better early on, he could easily outrun market expectations against more exposed rivals.

Lanzelot Gold appears the outsider of the field based on recent form and although he has previously shown flashes of ability at Listed level, his latest performances suggest he may find this assignment particularly demanding. Cristian Demuro is a notable booking and the stable is capable of springing surprises in these types of races, though he would likely require several of the principals to underperform in order to land a meaningful blow.

This looks a competitive but slightly tactical renewal of the Prix du Palais-Royal where positioning and race tempo may prove every bit as important as outright ability. Silius appeals as a progressive danger with further improvement possible and Noble Champion adds an intriguing British angle, but Lazzat brings the strongest proven Group form into the race and with conditions likely to suit ideally once again, he rates the most likely winner.

LAZZAT (WIN)

18:33 PARISLONGCHAMP – PRIX D’ISPAHAN

Daryz has done very little wrong in his career to date and arrives here unbeaten in two starts this season having returned with a smooth Listed success at Saint-Cloud last month. He travelled strongly throughout before quickening clear in the style of a horse ready for top-level company and with Mickael Barzalona retaining the ride for Francis-Henri Graffard, connections clearly mean business. Still relatively lightly raced for a four-year-old and open to further improvement over this trip, he looks a major player in what admittedly isn’t the deepest Group 1 renewal.

Sosie sets the standard on official ratings and his overall body of Group-race form is arguably the strongest in the field. Andre Fabre’s five-year-old won at the highest level last season before shaping well when third on reappearance earlier this spring and the return to Longchamp should suit given he’s already proven himself over course and distance. Fabre has an outstanding record in races of this nature and with Maxime Guyon booked again, another bold showing looks assured, though he may not possess quite the same scope for improvement as some of the younger rivals.  

Leffard ran better than the bare result suggested on his return when second on seasonal debut and that effort hinted he may be ready to step forward significantly here. Jean-Claude Rouget knows exactly what type is required to win top French middle-distance races and Cristian Demuro is an eye-catching booking given their excellent strike-rate together in Pattern company. He does, however, need to improve on previous Group-level efforts and this asks tougher questions than he’s faced so far.

Qilin Queen is the interesting outsider in the lineup and although she finished last season with a slightly disappointing effort, her earlier form suggested plenty of ability. She has already shown she handles Longchamp and the booking of Kieran Shoemark for Ed Walker suggests connections are hopeful of a competitive run. This is a significant rise in class against hardened Group performers though and she’ll likely need a career-best effort to trouble the principals.

Divine Chrisnat looks up against it on recent form having struggled in stronger company throughout the past twelve months. While he does possess plenty of experience and tends to race prominently, his current level leaves him with a fair bit to find and it would be a surprise were he able to land a meaningful blow against rivals with considerably stronger Group credentials.

In summary, this looks a fascinating tactical renewal despite the small field and there’s every chance the race develops into a steadily-run affair where positioning becomes crucial turning for home. Sosie brings the strongest established Group 1 form to the table and commands obvious respect, but Daryz looks the one with the greater potential upside and his latest success suggested he’s progressing rapidly into a genuine top-class performer. If handling this rise in grade as expected, he can continue his unbeaten seasonal campaign in style.

DARYZ (WIN)

19:50 PARISLONGCHAMP – PRIX VICOMTESSE VIGIER

Santorini Star arrives here as one of the more progressive stayers in the field and looks tailor-made for this test having shaped with plenty of promise over marathon trips already this season. He travelled strongly before asserting late over 3000m on his latest start and the manner in which he hit the line suggested this extra yardage at Longchamp will suit even better. William Haggas continues in excellent form with his international runners and with his proven ability to settle and quicken off a steady pace, Santorini Star sets a solid standard.

Consent has built a very likeable profile in staying company and comes here on the back of a series of consistent efforts in strong French contests. He’s already proven himself effective on galloping tracks with long straights and his stamina looks assured, which is a major positive in a race where several rivals still have something to prove at the trip. A strong pace would play firmly to his strengths and he rates the chief danger.

Al Riffa is arguably the classiest horse in the race on official ratings and his Group form over shorter trips reads exceptionally well, however this step up to 3100m asks a completely different question. There’s no doubt he possesses the tactical speed to travel into the race strongly but whether he truly sees out this extreme trip under pressure remains the key concern. If staying he’s a major player, though he’s opposable at likely short odds.

Rashford has become a reliable performer in staying races and there should be no concerns whatsoever regarding stamina. He’s likely to be ridden patiently and could pick off tiring rivals late on, though he does appear vulnerable to younger improvers and may just lack the finishing kick required to win at Group 1 level.

Caballo De Mar is an interesting outsider who has shaped as though a race of this nature would suit and his previous efforts on stamina-demanding tracks suggest he won’t be found wanting for endurance. He’ll likely need a career-best performance to land this but in an open staying division he’s not one to dismiss entirely and could sneak into the frame at rewarding odds.

Asmarani remains one of the less exposed runners in the lineup and there’s definite potential for improvement now stepping into top staying company. However, this represents a sizeable jump in class and while he’s bred to appreciate the trip, he may just find a few of these more battle-hardened stayers too strong at this stage of his career. 

Overall, this looks a race likely to be decided by proven stamina rather than outright class and that may count against Al Riffa despite his obvious ability. Consent should give another bold showing and rates a serious threat, but Santorini Star arrives with the ideal profile for a modern Vicomtesse Vigier winner and is taken to continue his progression in Group 1 staying company.

SANTORINI STAR (WIN)

written by Dean Kilbryde