THE ANTEPOST ANGLE - EPSOM DERBY

John Arnold returns for one of the biggest races in the British racing calendar as his attention turns to Epsom and one of the biggest classics. He discusses the history of such a big race and gives his thoughts on the 2026 renewal. History:

The Epsom Derby, officially known as the Betfred Derby for sponsorship reasons, is one of the most prestigious horse races in the world. The inaugural race took place on May 4, 1780, and was founded by the 12th Earl of Derby, Edward Smith-Stanley, who sought to create a premier event for three-year-old thoroughbred horses. Originally a contest for local racegoers, the Derby quickly gained popularity, transforming into a national event that attracted spectators and competitors from all corners of the country, cementing its place in British cultural heritage.

Over the years, the Epsom Derby has witnessed many significant moments and legendary horses. Some of the most famous champions include the likes of Njinksy, Shergar, Galileo and Camelot each leaving their mark on the race’s history. 

The Epsom Derby has continuously adapted to changes in the racing world while retaining its historical significance, becoming a symbol of excellence in thoroughbred horse racing. The event has also been a platform for significant changes in racing practices, including the introduction of improved training techniques and breeding standards. Today, the Derby remains not only a highlight of the racing season but also a focal point of British society, representing both the sport's rich tradition and its evolving future.

Trends:

Age - Race is for 3 year olds only.

Price - 4 of last 12 winners were favourites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.

Last Run - 11 of the last 12 winners ran in the last 35 days or less.

Course Form - 0 of the last 12 winners had run or won at Epsom before.

Distance Form - 8 /12 winners had at least 1 run over 10-12 furlongs.

Rating - 10/12 winners were rated 109 or higher.

Group Wins - 9/12 winners had at least one win in a group 1-3 race.

Contenders:

In recent times the premier flat classic has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien with a long list of winners only interrupted by Godolphin and John Gosden. This year's contenders form a similar line with destinations of O’Briens runners either to Epsom or to Chantilly for the French version being the obvious guessing game. The Derby trials at Chester, York and Lingfield gave further insight to the quality and potential. CONSTITUTION RIVER who scooted around Chester in excellent form is a likely runner in France so I would look elsewhere to MALTESE CROSS who won the trial at Lingfield in a resolute fashion and is bred for the race out of former winner Sea the Stars. The William Haggas colt will be a tough nut to crack. Another in the mix is Andrew Balding's ITEM. He won the Dante at York and being bred by Frankel has the quality. Some colts act on the demanding and unique contours of Epsom Downs others become unbalanced and over race early on. I believe this is a wide open renewal and we will see a closely fought contest.

Selections

MALTESE CROSS (WIN)

ITEM (E/W) written by John Arnold