TV TIPS (SATURDAY)

We preview all the live ITV action including the prestigious Northumberland Plate from Newcastle as well as races from York and the Curragh. 13:40 NEWCASTLE

If Pocklington were at his best he'd play a major part but with over 300 days on the sidelines to overcome it's likely his lack of fitness will let him down and there'll be at least a few too good.

Top-weight Aramram has been a model of consistency throughout the season and shouldn't be ignored and neither should the Simon and Ed Crisford trained Durham Castle. Both are horses on the up and should find themselves in the mix.

The King Power owned duo of Fivethousandtoone and Sergeant Wilko are both former course and distance winners who have the ability to outrun their odds now back at this venue.

The horse that catches the eye is another course and distance victor in the shape of Richard Fahey's Strike Red. Glimmers of hope in solid handicaps he should appreciate a return to the all-weather and won't be inconvenienced by his draw. Not the most likely victor but looks set to outperform his price.

STRIKE RED (E/W)

(Rory Paddock)

13:55 YORK

Perhaps a boring and obvious choice but it's hard to look past the short priced favourite Archivist. Trainer William Haggas has a great record here at arguably Yorkshire's premier racecourse and this well bred three-year-old looks a horse on the up who's likely to improve past this level. With a weight for age allowance lowering the burden on his back he'll be hard to beat.

Of the remainder Madame De Sevigne showed enough when runner up last time to suggest she's capable of going close once more.

ARCHIVIST (WIN)

(Rory Paddock)

14:10 NEWCASTLE

Alyanaabi was a tad disappointing at Haydock but he’s back over six furlongs for the first time since winning on his debut. He wears blinkers for the first time as well and maybe he could take to this race better. Spycatcher is another that will benefit for the drop in trip and also from the lighter weight he has to carry. He might not be the force of old but he can’t be discounted. Kind Of Blue is a Group One winner and a nightmare start derailed his chances at Chantilly. He’s much the best horse here and should do the business.

KIND OF BLUE (WIN)

(Kieran McHugh)

14:25 YORK

Unfortunately the rain isn't set to fall in time for Room Service who'd have a fantastic chance if a downpour ensued. As such we're forced to look elsewhere.

William Haggas has a great chanced in the previous race on the card and it looks like he's got another strong claim in this one in the form of Lake Forest. The former course victor went close in the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and despite never winning over this trip he's shaped as if it would suit him down to the ground. He's competed at the highest level and looks to have the best form in the book.

We saw owners Wathnan Racing pick up plenty at the Royal Meeting and they've got a serious contender in the form of Parborus however he disappointed in his only start at this venue and he'll need to improve to compete at this level. Not without a chance but more seasoned professionals might have the upper hand.

At a price Karl Burke's Lethal Levi could finish in the placings. Always runs a solid race and Karl Burke has a great record at the course.

LAKE FOREST (WIN)

(Rory Paddock)

14:40 NEWCASTLE

Early markets are understandably headed by Godsend who has excelled for Sir Mark Prescott since being upped to staying trips, winning five of his last six at distances of up to just over two miles. That said, a bigger, more competitive field awaits and with concerns over the switch to the tapeta also in mind he’s passed over today.

Savrola has raced here three times without success but arrives in excellent recent form, while Contacto stayed on well for fourth over two miles at Goodwood when last seen and should also go well, although at a bigger price Churchella is preferred. She has prior experience of the tapeta track having won here over a shorter trip when trained by David O’Meara and has also proven her stamina over two miles having won three times at the trip so looks worth chancing at an each way price.

CHURCHELLA (E/W)

(Dean Kilbryde)

15:00 YORK

Last time out victors Jm Jungle, Regal Envoy, Azure Angel and Habooba are likely to fill the head of the market and rightly so given their most recent form.

Although the aforementioned quartet have strong claims, one at a bigger price that could cause an upset is Democracy Dilemma. The Robert Cowell trained five-year-old has competed in group and listed races and shaped well at Epsom last time out when returning to handicap company. The last time he lined up here at York he finished a close fourth of 22. The winner that day was Jm Jungle but the John and Sean Quinn horse was racing off a mark of 88 that day and is now carrying a rating of 101. Democracy Dilemma has dropped in the weights and could be primed for a big run.

DEMOCRACY DILEMMA (E/W)

(Rory Paddock)

15:15 NEWCASTLE

The centrepiece race of the Festival the Northumberland Plate also known as the Pitmans Derby brings in quality and quantity with an angle on stamina and class. The trio of runners I have been interested in antepost, two of which ran last week at Royal Ascot possess superb breeding and previous solid form lines. Firstly MANXMAN, sired by Cracksman no stranger to group winning performances himself with the dam sire also being the legend Montjeu there is no shortage of class. Furthermore the Simon and Ed Crisford trained horse has four times raced at the two mile distance with an overall race record of seven wins and six places from sixteen runs. These have been on both turf and standard surfaces. He was up in class at Ascot and was not disgraced by a down the field finish behind Ascending.

ROARING LEGEND was unplaced behind Illinois at Chester in the Ormonde Stakes but the Roaring Lion colt has raced at this distance four times winning twice. The Hugo Palmer trained contender with David Probert in the plate demands respect.

Next up to focus on is EAST INDIA DOCK. Sired by Derby and Arc winner Golden Horn and the dam sire being Galileo, James Owens' charge lacks little in bloodlines. Also he won the Chester Cup at a slightly further two furlongs last month which is not surprising given his hurdling form across the winter culminating in a closely run third to Poniros in the Triumph Hurdle whereupon he lost a shoe and was headed by only three quarters of a length at the post. There surely is more to come from him this season and the highly coveted prize at Newcastle could be his next prize. He was only six lengths adrift of the winner last week under James Doyle who partners him again and I expect another bold show.

EAST INDIA DOCK (WIN)

MANXMAN (E/W)

ROARING LEGEND (E/W)

(John Arnold)

15:30 CURRAGH

Although it seems harsh on the other five runners Kalpana and Whirl stand out head and shoulders above the rest. The pair may not have won their most recent races however that came in top-class Group 1 contests behind very talented horses.

In regards to form Kalpana probably has the better of the two and seems better over the 10 furlong trip however, as she's a three-year-old, Whirl has 12lbs less weight to carry which could be a major advantage.

It's hard to split the two so the bold move is taken to back the pair to finish in the top two spaces.

Of the remainder, although it seems unlikely, if you were forced to look for horses that potentially cause an upset Magical Hope and Survie look best of the rest.

KALPANA / WHIRL (REVERSE FORECAST)

(Rory Paddock)

15:45 NEWCASTLE

Rare Change has had a brilliant three year old campaign so far, winning three of his four starts and there was excuses for the hevay defeat at Goodwood with suffering interference all the way up the straight when full of running, comes here under a 6lb penalty for a comfortable win at Pontefract and still looks well ahead of the handicapper. With a clear run he'll be hard to beat. Native Warrior has ran well on both starts this season but weakened inside the final furlong, this drop back to 7 furlongs looks ideal and they've gone for the visor for the first time to try and eke out some more ability, danger. Eldrickjones loves it at Newcastle with four wins coming at the track, was a gallant fifth in this race 12 months ago but running again off the same mark he's probably only an each way shout at best. Jouncy has a fantastic pedigree, she was less than 9 lengths behind the 1000 Guineas third as a two year old and is slowly creeping to a dangerous handicap mark, suffered interference last time and looks huge each way value in this but may be crying out for a step up to a mile to see her at her very best.

RARE CHANGE (WIN)

JOUNCY (E/W)

(Liam Hall)