BREEDERS' CUP TIPS (SATURDAY)

Toby Darby returns to Keeneland for Championship Saturday at the Breeders' Cup, with his views on eight of the Grade 1s, a nap in the Sprint and a strong fancy to defend his Mile crown, all building to Forever Young's bid for back-to-back Classics.

(All times UK GMT)

17:48 KEENELAND

Bacio has shown he is all speed, and Wesley Ward's colt has drawn well in stall three for the Turf Sprint after winning at Royal Ascot and beating Starlust in the Nunthorpe.

However, he won't be the only one forcing the issue, as has been the case in the UK, with Joe Shiesty, Miss Yechance and Roja all likely to go forward too.

Miss Yechance has been a filly on the up and would be one of the stories of the week if she were to win, but sadly the draw has scuppered any appetite for me to back her.

Starlust won this race two years ago at Del Mar and, although he has had a muddling career since, he finished just over a length behind Bacio in second at York, proving he retains plenty of ability. He could easily outrun his odds again.

STARLUST (E/W)

18:26 KEENELAND

The vets have been scratching plenty of runners this week and, at the time of writing, Forged Steel is under the spotlight, which is a concern.

I expected Further Ado to be shorter here. The Blue Grass winner takes up the easier assignment instead of the Classic, and he finished just half a length behind The Puma in the Pennsylvania Derby last time.

Connections clearly want a Breeders' Cup win regardless of the race, and it wouldn't surprise me if he went off closer to 6/4, which makes his current price more than fair. He has also won twice at Keeneland. Nothing else really appeals at a bigger price.

FURTHER ADO (WIN)

19:04 KEENELAND

The market is headed by the Europeans, as is to be expected in these turf races, but I think both have question marks.

Blue Bolt is stepping up from a mile to an extended nine and a half furlongs for the first time to avoid the boys, and she has to overcome stall 12. Precise is now five races without a win and is also drawn in double figures.

Classic Q and Lush Lips were separated by a short head last time out, and it pains me watching Lush Lips get to the front too soon. She is a Grade 1 winner over course and distance from last year's Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, and with a well-timed ride she can win races at this level.

At the prices, you can also play the places, which she should be involved in.

LUSH LIPS (E/W)

19:42 KEENELAND

Englishman is arguably the best three-year-old in America this year despite not being on the Derby trail. Cherie DeVaux's colt has won the Woody Stephens and H. Allen Jerkens at Saratoga, and he is the banker for many this week.

It is hard to oppose him even from stall 13, and the presence of the Japanese challenger makes him a backable price, with the rest of the US horses unlikely to be good enough.

Dark Saffron, the dual Golden Shaheen winner, could make the frame if able to replicate his Meydan form, but that is far from guaranteed after seven months off.

ENGLISHMAN (WIN)

20:20 KEENELAND

Notable Speech returns to defend his crown, and the only thing that can get him beaten is luck in running.

He has been a victim of bad fortune many times throughout his career, but he has won the Lockinge, City of York and Woodbine Mile this year and, all things being equal, he should win this from stall eight.

The same can be said for Lake Forest, who isn't quite as talented but also needs luck to be seen at his best, having finished second to Notable Speech at York and to Rhetorical in the Coolmore Turf Mile over course and distance last time.

The speed will come from Deterministic in gate one, and I expect him to set it up for one of the European closers. This isn't the tightest Breeders' Cup course, so I will keep faith with the very talented Notable Speech.

NOTABLE SPEECH (WIN)

20:58 KEENELAND

Nitrogen is always a horse I would like to take on, especially after the late scratching of pace rival Splendora, but the only real danger is also short enough, so I am happy to leave this race alone.

NO BET

21:36 KEENELAND

For transparency, I am on Diamond Necklace ante-post, but stall 12 and Ryan Moore choosing Benvenuto Cellini over her has cooled me slightly.

Another filly can step up, though. Survie has an equally poor draw, but she will be held up and come with a lightning-quick late run.

George Boughey's mare will need a clear run, but she has shown her liking for American turf courses by winning the Glens Falls and the Grade 1 Christophe Clement Turf at Saratoga, and I think she can belie her big odds.

I'm not a fan of Benvenuto Cellini, Bay City Roller has had a couple of testing recent races in the Arc and Champion Stakes, and Tiffany won a puzzling Kentucky Turf Cup.

SURVIE (E/W)

22:16 KEENELAND

Last year's late scratching Sovereignty is back to make amends. He was my favourite horse last year but hasn't quite hit those heights so far, although this will have been the end-of-season target.

The retirement of Magnitude cuts the field to seven and won't help the pace collapse that Sovereignty desires, so I will side with the Japanese globetrotter Forever Young.

Last year's winner is a proper racehorse who doesn't know how to run a bad race, and he warmed up by winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He should sit a stalking trip behind Knightsbridge and Napoleon Solo but stay on stronger late.

He will need to repel Golden Tempo and Sovereignty, but he has the strength to do so and become only the second horse after Tiznow to win the Classic twice.

FOREVER YOUNG (WIN)

written by Toby Darby