MELBOURNE CUP 2026: The 7 Trends That Point To The Winner

The race that stops a nation is run at Flemington tomorrow, Tuesday 3 November. Picking a winner from a field of 24 can feel like guesswork, but the history books say otherwise. Recent Melbourne Cup winners have had a lot in common, and some of those patterns are hard to ignore.

We looked at every winner from 2013 to 2025: their age, sex, breeding, barrier, starting price, where they were trained and how they were prepared. Seven trends stand out. Most winners were aged 4 to 7, started at $26 or shorter, and came through a 2400m or 2500m lead-up race. Most were also trained in Australia, gelded, drawn wide, and bred in Europe.

No horse is guaranteed to win, and the Cup has thrown up some famous upsets, including Prince of Penzance at $101 and Knight’s Choice at $91. Still, when a runner ticks every box, it’s worth a closer look.

This year, only two horses in the field meet all seven criteria: JUJA KIBO MR MONACO written by Rory Paddock