THE IRISH INSIDER

15:40 LISTOWEL

Likely market leader Wannabe Royal is best in at the weights, but there are grounds for caution. She may have benefited from more rain, having produced a below par performance on good ground last time out, with her strongest form coming on the all weather and softer going.

Similar concerns apply to Chazesmee, whose best performances have also come on soft or heavy ground. The 337 day absence introduces another level of uncertainty, though he has returned well from breaks in the past.

Perhaps the most telling factor in this race is trainer form. Over the past 14 days, Paddy Twomey has been operating at a remarkable 37% strike rate, in contrast to Joseph O’Brien at 8%, with no wins among the other trainers. Twomey’s yard is in red hot form, and with Admiral Churchill arriving on the back of a win, he looks the one they’ll all have to beat.

ADMIRAL CHURCHILL (WIN)

17:10 LISTOWEL

A contest filled with National Hunt contenders and one that’s far from straightforward to unravel. Nevertheless, I hold strong confidence in the chances of Lark In The Mornin, a previous Cheltenham Festival winner who stands out markedly over obstacles. Notably, he also boasts a flat victory at this very course, achieved on debut three years ago.

The main threat could well come from Sorrentino, an impressive bumper winner for Willie Mullins last season, though he has not been seen since so definitely falls into the ‘could be anything’ category. At a more generous price, Toto Too appeals as one who should relish the extra distance, and he holds the second highest National Hunt rating in the field.

LARK IN THE MORNIN (WIN)

written by Toby Darby